HappyHoroscope
Monday, March 20, 2023
  Will China publicly support Russia's attack on Ukraine?
ยท

Not at all!

In general the Chinese sympathize with Ukraine but do not oppose Russia, do not support war, and advocate a peaceful solution.

China will not publicly support Russia's attack on Ukraine.

The Beijing Winter Olympics will be remembered not just for China's efforts to impress the world amid criticism of its human rights record, but also for the Olympics that marked the sharpest escalation of strategic tensions between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War background.

Indeed, the great-power standoff over Ukraine and endless speculation over whether Russia will invade has clouded international events celebrating sport and solidarity as usual.

The Winter Olympics ended as fighting escalated in eastern Ukraine. If the threat of Russia's use of force against Ukraine a few weeks ago was more of a speculation and often contentious, the risk of a real conflict now is much higher.

In resolving the crisis, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown unprecedented confidence in finding a solution that benefits his country. His confidence may be based on a few cards: a crumbling Ukrainian economy, Russia's formidable military and a new trump card: China.

First, the two leaders signed a long-term deal worth $117 billion to ship Russian oil and gas to China. In the event of an invasion, the agreement enables Moscow to mitigate the U.S. threat of halting the operation of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe.

Second, this joint statement formalizes China's political support for Russia's strategy against the West. Importantly, for the first time, China has expressed support for Russia's opposition to NATO expansion.

Both sides opposed further expansion of NATO and called on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon its ideological Cold War approach and respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries.

In a speech at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reinforced that message and supported the Russian-favored Minsk Accords, a political settlement for the divided pro-Russian region of eastern Ukraine.

While Russia would not need Chinese military assistance in any potential invasion of Ukraine, Beijing's political and economic support is encouraging for Putin. In return, Beijing will receive tangible benefits from Moscow.

First, by agreeing to support Russia against NATO, Beijing gained Moscow's reaffirmed support over Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. In fact, China may use Russia's approach to Ukraine as a model to pressure Taiwan to unify or invade the island outright.

Second, China can now rely on Russia to counterbalance the new AUKUS Security Agreement (AUKUS) between the US, UK and Australia.

Third, Xi may use his friendly relationship with Putin to exercise power at home. Later this year, the Chinese Communist Party will hold its 20th party congress - a watershed moment in Xi Jinping's rule. Putin is revered in China as a strong leader, so it may be important to Xi Jinping to consolidate his support as he tries to secure his return to power.

At the moment, time is on Putin's side - a huge strategic factor that the West does not have. And the deeper the hostility between Russia, China and the West, the closer the relationship between Beijing and Moscow is likely to be.

 
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